Rob Price, CEO of Sound Money, takes us through some of extraordinary leaps in quantum computing in recent months and what threat this poses to Bitcoin’s cryptography – and how bitcoiners are responding. From Moneyweb.
You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.
There’s been plenty of speculation about the potential impact of quantum computing on the Bitcoin network.
Google recently ran a calculation on its quantum chip in five minutes that would take the world’s fastest supercomputer 10 septillion years to complete (that’s longer than the entire age of the universe).
Quantum computing is both fascinating and potentially terrifying.
It means we will soon be able to design drugs in weeks, not years, and make smarter, faster investment decisions.
In essence, this makes AI’s admittedly impressive advancements look minuscule compared to what’s coming.
There’s been speculation that quantum computing poses a threat to Bitcoin’s cryptography.
How real is this threat?
And is the Bitcoin community taking steps to address this?
Rob Price, CEO of Sound Money, explains that quantum computing is a new type of computing that uses the principles of quantum mechanics.
Quantum computers use ‘qubits’ rather than the ones and zeroes of classic computing, enabling parallel computations across many possible states. In essence, much, much faster computing power.
“Quantum computers do exist today, but not in a way that threatens modern cryptographic systems,” says Price.
The real breakthrough would be in developing fault-tolerant quantum machines – computers that can correct their own errors and run large, reliable programmes.
Most realistic expert forecasts suggest this is still 10 to 15 years away.
All modern security systems threatened
Quantum computing doesn’t just threaten Bitcoin – it threatens all modern security systems, including the cryptographic algorithms used by banks, insurance firms, asset managers, and even national security agencies.
The good news is that the cryptography community has been actively preparing for this threat. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) ran a multi-year competition from 2016 to 2022 to identify post-quantum cryptographic algorithms.
Hundreds of cryptographers participated, and NIST has now published a shortlist of quantum-resistant algorithms. Bitcoin can obviously upgrade its cryptographic technology, but the process is more complex in an open-source source decentralised system than in centralised systems.
Bitcoin is a decentralised network and, by design, changes to its protocol are deliberately difficult to make.
This is a feature, not a bug – it’s part of what ensures Bitcoin’s long-term stability and trustworthiness.
There are some technical challenges posed by quantum computing.
Usually, Bitcoin’s software upgrades take place via soft forks, which are backwards compatible – this means that the old software is still compatible with the new software. In other words, the software still works, even if you don’t upgrade.
Yes, there are potential threats ahead, says Price, but the Bitcoin community is planning far in advance. Danger averted.
