According to the latest Afrobarometer survey, while more than 80% believe corruption is increasing. From Moneyweb.
The latest Afrobarometer survey shows support for democracy in SA is collapsing at an alarming rate while perceptions of corruption are sharply up.
The survey comes on the heels of the May 2024 election that forced the ruling party to share power with the Democratic Alliance and other centre-leaning parties. That, one would think, would have restored some confidence in SA’s democratic journey, but that’s not what the Afrobarometer survey is telling us.
There’s been a 29 percentage point drop in support for democracy in SA, and a 35 percentage point decline in “satisfaction with democracy” since 2011, amid growing disillusionment with government’s inability or unwillingness to address corruption.
Weaker support for democracy is explained by declining socioeconomic and political performance, as well as declining election quality, increasing levels of corruption, and failure to promote the rule of law.
The chart below shows SA’s support for democracy sliding to second last in Africa, having previously been among the most ardent advocates of this form of governance.
Citizens in Zambia, Ethiopia and Senegal are far more satisfied with democracy than their counterparts in SA.
Even citizens in Zimbabwe, a country that has had two decades of highly contested elections, appear generally satisfied with the state of their democracy (75%).
The quality of that democracy attracts a much lower approval rating, with just 37% of Africans saying they are “fairly” or “very” satisfied with the way their democracy is working, compared to 67% of Asians and 42% of Eurasians.
Preference for democracy, 2011 to 2023
The reasons for SA’s waning love for democracy are perhaps best explained in the following chart, reflecting perceptions around corruption, with more than 80% of citizens in SA, Lesotho and Eswatini saying corruption has increased.
Perceptions of increased levels of corruption, 2011 to 2023
Perceptions appear to change radically from one year to the next, so the new corps of MPs in South Africa’s parliament should probably have a Plan B in case their political careers are prematurely foreclosed.
The number of survey respondents who saw corruption on the rise decreased from 83% to 64% when President Cyril Ramaphosa took office in 2018, but then shot back up again to 82% in 2022.
“The data suggest that such a pattern of collapsing democratic satisfaction linked to growing perceptions of corruption also holds among other respected Southern African democracies such as Botswana, Mauritius, and Namibia,” says the survey.
Inverse correlation
There appears to be an inverse correlation between support for democracy and perceptions of corruption, and not just in SA. More than 70% of respondents in Botswana, Mauritius, and Namibia reported increased perceptions of corruption in the past year – against just 19% in Zambia, where support for democracy remains strong.
The Afrobarometer survey was conducted among 53 444 respondents in 34 countries in Africa, and shows a consistency over the 25 years since the survey was first launched in 2001.
About 80% of respondents reject one-man or one-party rule, 66% reject military rule and 66% prefer democracy to other forms of government.
The preference for democracy over other forms of government, however, shows signs of slippage with just 66% registering their support compared to 73% in 2011/2013.
The same is true for those rejecting military rule – down to 65% from 76% over the same period.
“Examining support for democratic norms, we again see evidence of both positive and modestly negative change. Support is strong and generally steady for a wide range of democratic norms, from presidential term limits to accountability and rule of law. Across 30 countries, support does not fall below 60% for any of these norms in the most recent survey.”
There is high support for effective checks and balances among the branches of government across the continent (66%), as well as support for multi-party competition to ensure robust debate, innovation and accountability (64%).
There is also popular support for presidential term limits, which face frequent challenges from leaders intent on hanging on to power. This support has varied between 72% and 77% over the last decade.
The youth
One interesting insight from the survey is the number of people voting in elections: 63% among the younger cohort, versus 78-84% among the more elderly. The young also trail in other forms of political engagement, such as contacting local government councillors.
Read: South African youth despondency is rife ahead of vote, survey shows
“Taken together, these deficits suggest that the voices of young Africans are not yet fully heard in the continent’s policy processes,” says the survey report.
If these trends hold, South Africa’s new government of national unity may enjoy a brief honeymoon and, depending on its performance, further alienation from the democratic train, and growing tolerance for less democratic alternatives.
