Around a fifth of global oil trade has been affected, and even if hostilities end tomorrow, it will take time for operations to return to normal. From Moneyweb.
Gold fell nearly 5% on Thursday (9pm) to around $4 600 an ounce, while Brent crude oil spiked to nearly $120 a barrel before retreating to R114 following news of attacks on oil infrastructure amid the war in the Middle East.
Listen/read: ‘Gold doesn’t go up or down’
The JSE closed 2.7% down, having recovered some losses after plunging as much as 4.3% in early afternoon trade.
The big losers of the day on the JSE were gold and platinum shares.
Sibanye-Stillwater and Impala Platinum plunged more than 10%, with Harmony, Valterra and Northam losing between 8% and 9%.
Platinum prices are down nearly 10% year to date and 28% from the January peak of $2 878/oz. Palladium is down 14% for the year so far, creating a bloodbath for platinum group metal (PGM) stocks.
It was these very stocks that carried the JSE to a remarkable 38% gain in 2025, adding another 10% in the first few weeks of 2026.
With the reverse gears now in full spin, the JSE has wiped out all its 2026 gains.
Sasol bucked the trend, with a more than 5% gain yesterday, lifting its share price to R212. Coal producer Thungela did even better with a 6% gain.
Conflict escalates
What US President Donald Trump expected to be a short, sharp strike against Iran has morphed into something far more dangerous, as Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the world’s largest natural gas reserve.
Iran retaliated, reportedly hitting gas and oil facilities across the Gulf, in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. It is also targeting energy infrastructure in Israel.
Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz – which accounts for about a fifth of global seaborne oil traffic – has further ruptured the global economic outlook for the year.
That halted much of the Gulf’s oil and gas production, driving Brent to within a whisker of $120 a barrel at one point.
Suddenly, a $200 a barrel oil price doesn’t seem such a crazy idea, reports Oilprice.com. A month ago, that would have been laughable.
Global oil trade disrupted
A huge chunk of the global oil trade has been disrupted – and even if the bombs stop flying tomorrow, it will take a while for things to get back to normal.
Pressure is building on the belligerents to call a ceasefire, though there is little evidence this message is getting through.
The International Energy Agency earlier predicted the oil market would this year be in a surplus of around 3.7 million barrels daily, but that’s all gone as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have pared production by seven million barrels a day.
Where oil goes from here depends on the lethality and duration of the war.
A quick end to hostilities would see oil prices return to below $100 a barrel, but not necessarily to the $70 mark – where they were in February.
Gold and silver
Gold has plunged 15% from its January peak of $5 589/oz, while silver’s 43% slide from its January peak of $121/oz is even more dramatic.
What’s driving gold lower is a flight to the safety of a stronger US dollar amid expectations of higher inflation as oil prices have spiked nearly 50% since the start of the conflict.
Some gold analysts believe the drop in precious metals prices is overdue following a parabolic run over the last year.
Fuel prices set to rocket
South African motorists will be hit with fuel pump increases in April. If oil stays above $100 a barrel, Stanlib’s Kevin Lings forecasts a hike of between R4 and R8 a litre for petrol and diesel in early April, one of the largest monthly increases on record.
The hike is also being fuelled by the weaker rand.
This will have a knock-on effect on food and other items, and will reverse the downtrend in consumer inflation in the coming months.
Analysts believe this could shut the door on any anticipated interest rate reductions in the short term and could prompt an increase in rates if the energy shock persists.
