Shiven Moodley, macro strategist at Novaque, argues that this is an aggressive drawdown in the crypto market, not a bear market. From Moneyweb.
You can also listen to this podcast on iono.fm here.
Bitcoin is down 31% since peaking at $126 000 in October. That may look like a disaster to those new to crypto, but for those who have been in the market a little longer, 70% and even 80% drawdowns are not uncommon. No biggie, but alarming enough.
Surprisingly, altcoins are down around just 20% since the market peak, though that’s the average – some individual coins are down 60%.
The Nasdaq has fallen about 8% and the S&P 500 nearly 6%.
Read: Bitcoin weakness persists as crypto steadies after bruising week
It’s clear that cryptos are bearing the brunt of the market jitters caused by institutional outflows, profit-taking and a broader market slowdown amid concerns over a stuttering global economy.
In this podcast, host Ciaran Ryan speaks to Novaque macro strategist Shiven Moodley about the recent crypto meltdown.
They explore whether this is a genuine bear market or simply a price correction, the strategies investors should consider, and the implications of institutional investments in Bitcoin through MicroStrategy. The discussion also touches on the future of altcoins and the potential impact of macroeconomic factors leading into 2026.
“So is it a bear market? I don’t think so. I think it’s a price correction,” says Moodley.
“What we’ve seen internally is that the 365-day moving average in price action was a great support level. But in the last week or so, price[s] really took a dip beyond that. And that’s what’s caused greater concern.
“The aggression in the price fall was steeper than what we thought in our previous thesis.”
Read:
Crypto market extends slide with Bitcoin drop below $86 000
Crypto world wipes out $1trn as Bitcoin plunges anew
Great Bitcoin crash of 2025 has it lagging bonds, gold and more
For bitcoin (BTC) maximalists, these are testing times. Michael Saylor of Strategy has accumulated more than 640 000 bitcoin, currently worth $56 billion. His average purchase price is slightly below the current market price – putting him slightly in the black.
Saylor once again finds his all-in-on-bitcoin strategy under question.
Moodley says Saylor has put options on his massive long-BTC bet which were likely triggered during the current down cycle. That will provide some insurance protection, something his investors are demanding.
“I think these sovereign wealth funds are going to be looking at the long run – that Michael Saylor is holding bitcoin for 100 years, for example, and when going through that in more detail, I think the sovereign wealth funds are actually going to look at a drawdown and [ask] how is he protecting it?
“And I think that’s where the put options are going to be coming into play.”
Listen/read:
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Strategy is seen as a proxy for those who want exposure to BTC without having to custody it. The shares historically traded at a premium to net asset value, but that premium has collapsed alongside the slide in bitcoin’s price.
Strategy remains highly leveraged to BTC, achieving a peak mNAV (market-cap-to-net-asset-value multiple) of 3.4 times in November 2024. That mNAV has fallen to around 1.1.
When it comes to altcoins, blood is everywhere.
“I’ve definitely taken a hit across the board. I think, personally, this is an opportunity to get back into a lot of the coins that were overvalued,” adds Moodley.
Looking to 2026, he says the AI bubble may be in danger of fanning systemic risk across the financial markets, aggravated by shaky bond markets from Japan to the UK.
That suggests the market jitters are not yet done.
